Chinese Plenum
Major changes to Chinas leaders and policies
“Focusing on what you can’t control makes you stressed. Focusing on what you can control makes you powerful.”- Mel Robbins
As volatility crept back into AI names and precious metals last week, the timing was almost comical. Just weeks ago, Bank of America was telling clients to load up—put half their portfolios into gold—right as it hit all-time highs. What followed? A textbook sharp correction. You couldn’t script it better.
I didn’t expect to get another clean entry point into the gold miners, but names like AEM and AGI—which have some of the best margins and upside in the entire space—are firmly back on my radar. Even if gold were to retreat to around $3,800, a roughly 14% correction from the highs, these two would still be operating at ~60% margins. Both carry strong balance sheets, with high cash reserves and minimal leverage compared to the bigger players like NEM and Barrick (B). If you believe gold continues its march higher as the dollar grinds lower and monetary debasement accelerates, these are the names to own.
And to the crypto crowd celebrating gold’s pullback let’s be clear, gold is still holding trend, while BTC is not. Gold would need to drop another 11% to break trend, whereas Bitcoin has to reclaim $112,500 just to get back above it. Until that happens, BTC remains a short in my book.
What I was watching and reading this week
Currently reading Let Them by Mel Robbins — an incredible story of reinvention. Robbins seemingly came out of nowhere and now fills arenas and boardrooms across the world, speaking at major corporate events and inspiring millions. What makes her rise remarkable is where she started: in her mid-40s, broke, worried about paying the bills, and stuck. Then one morning, she made a single decision — to get up and take control — and everything changed.
Her story is a reminder that it’s never too late to pivot into something that truly drives you. For me, that passion is waking up at 5:30 a.m. each morning, diving into the financial markets, and figuring out how to adapt, learn, and risk-manage the portfolio at MainSail Fund. Every day brings a new challenge — and like Robbins says, sometimes the biggest breakthroughs come right after you decide to simply get up and move.
A key takeaway from Let Them is Mel Robbins’ “Let Them Theory,” which is all about reclaiming your energy. The idea is simple but powerful — stop reacting to how others behave or what they say. Let them. Let them act that way, let them talk, let them judge. Your job is to stay focused on yourself and what you can control. In a world full of noise and distraction, that mindset shift can be the difference between being constantly drained and actually moving forward with clarity and purpose.
Even with the government still shut down, a few key departments somehow managed to get just enough funding to release this week’s critical data points.
Existing Home Sales- The latest data from the National Association of Realtors for September show existing-home sales climbed to 4.06 million (seasonally adjusted annual rate), marking a 1.5 % monthly gain and a 4.1 % year-over-year increase—lifted by a modest drop in mortgage rates to about 6.27 %. Meanwhile, the median sales price rose to $415,200 (up 2.1 % y/y), inventory remains constrained at roughly 4.6 months’ supply, and the typical home spent just 33 days on market. First-time buyers and all-cash buyers each accounted for about 30 % of transactions. The takeaway: the market is thawing rather than charging forward—lower rates are coaxing some activity back, but affordability pressures and tight inventory mean the housing sector remains more “steady warm” than “white-hot recovery.”
CPI- Headline inflation came in at 3.0% year-over-year in September, a slight uptick from August’s 2.9%, with a monthly rise of 0.3%. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) held steady at 3.0% y/y, marginally down from 3.1%. Gasoline prices surged 4.1% for the month and were a major driver of the headline number, while “owner’s equivalent rent” posted the slowest monthly increase since 2021—providing a mild silver lining.
Government shutdown watch still looking like no resolution until mid-November
The Main Course
The Fourth Plenum of the 20th Central Committee wrapped with clear messaging: China’s next five-year plan (2026–2030) will emphasize high-quality, self-reliant growth and technological modernization. The agenda signals more state support for innovation, domestic consumption, and resource security—while gradually steering away from debt-heavy infrastructure and export dependency.
